The cold(er) war

By Rebecca Goozee, Deputy Editor

Since a team of Russian explorers planted a titanium flag on the ocean floor of the North Pole in a dramatic move to claim the Arctic region back in 2007, Russia has made no secret of its ambitions to establish a deeper footprint in the frozen north. And now, as the country formally announces plans to establish military bases along its northern coastline, the war for the Arctic’s lucrative reserves is heating up.

It looked like something from a James Bond movie. A fortnight after ploughing their way through deep pack ice and freezing conditions, the two Russian ships reached their destination and deployed a pair of mini-submarines to begin the final journey down into the ice-cold waters. And as the robotic arm reached out and planted the Russian flag on the seabed 4200 metres below the North Pole, a new race was thrown into the spotlight – not about space or arms, but about energy. In an instant, Moscow’s claims to the Arctic – and by extension, its vast untapped energy reserves – spectacularly changed the politics of the region.

Up until that point, the Arctic had been the sole preserve of scientists and legal experts. Yet fast-forward two years and Russia has upped the ante again, announcing a new national security strategy that includes plans to create army units in Russia’s Arctic region to “guarantee military security in different military-political solutions”. Approved back in September by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the strategy declares the Arctic to be Russia’s most important area for international and military security, particularly regarding its relations with other countries. The document produced by Russia’s Security Council claims that pursuing the region’s oil and gas resources is a vital national objective and that it expects the area to become its main resource base in the years to 2020.

More chillingly, Artur Chilingarov, the Kremlin’s special representative for the Arctic and also the scientist that led the 2007 expedition to the seabed, has warned that Russia plans to assert its national interests and will not “stand still” in the competition for the region’s resources. “The Arctic is Russian. We must prove the North Pole is an extension of the Russian landmass,” he said in a recent interview. “We have worked in the Arctic and we are working there now. Russia’s national interest lies there.”

A draft law currently before Russia’s parliament would grant its coastguard the right to block foreign military and commercial vessels, levy fees and, depending on weather conditions, require ships to use Russian pilots and icebreakers. The recruitment of a polar patrol forms part of a sustained effort by Russia to extend its claims on the region. Within two years, Moscow hopes to compile enough geological surveys to support its claim to natural resources, and the country has set a deadline of four years for securing international recognition for its claims. 
 
Since the release of the national security document Russia has continued to play down its strategy in the north, saying its emphasis was on improving the border guard service as well as its co-operation with other states in “combating terrorism in the area, seeking to prevent illicit trade and illegal migration and in seeking to protect aquatic biological resources”. But while the proposed legislation regarding international traffic through the so-called Northern Sea route is not substantially different from the Soviet-era restrictions already in force, it is likely to disappoint other Arctic states that were hoping Russia would open up the route to become an international waterway.

The frozen north
For centuries, the inhospitable Arctic has attracted explorers and traders, drawing in those in search of the legendary Northwest Passage. The region offered the prospects of profits from furs, fishing and whaling to raw materials. In fact, economic interests and shipping routes are still one of the reasons to stake a claim on the region today. And due to the polar cap shrinking as a result of global warming, change is afoot in the territory. According to Christian Haas from the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremen, the reduction in the Arctic sea ice coverage has dropped from an average seven million square kilometres between 1979 and 2000 to just over four million square kilometres today.

Of more interest is the latest assessment by the US Geological Survey, which indicates that the Arctic probably contains more than 90 billion barrels of oil and almost 50 trillion cubic meters of natural gas that have yet to be discovered. These reserves are thought to be predominantly in offshore coastal areas, with smaller amounts also found on land. Moreover, it is believed that the permafrost areas in northern Alaska and the coastal seabed of the Arctic Ocean contain enormous quantities of gas hydrates consisting of ice and methane that could provide a future source of natural gas. With significant deposits of diamonds, gold, zinc and nickel also found in the region, it is easy to see why various countries are eager to get their hands on the Arctic’s treasure.

Competition
So as the ice cover continues to melt and reveal huge potential for lucrative resource deposits and shipping lanes, the war for the region’s resources is heating up. Russia’s claims are being challenged by the other Arctic states, Canada, Norway, Denmark and the United States, all of whom have a 320-kilometre economic zone north of their borders.

After bringing back soil samples to boost Russia’s argument that the Lomonosov Ridge is an extension of its territory, the country is now planning to lodge a bid with the United National Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) later this year. UNCLOS, the international treaty that sets the rules for ownership of ocean resources and is often described as the ‘constitution for the oceans’, recognises that Canada, Denmark, Norway and Russia are all entitled to extend their seabed boundaries, even going as far as setting a deadline for doing so. The US is excluded from claiming the extended continental shelf as it has not joined the convention. The deadline for submissions relating to the Arctic is fast approaching, which is why the ‘race’ is now on.

While all five countries are completing geological studies so they can win international recognition of what they each deem to be their Arctic borders, it is likely to result in overlapping claims and animosity, particularly as the convention leaves it to those countries involved to resolve overlapping claims among themselves. Disputes over jurisdiction could slow the process of setting up a system to protect the Arctic and could also damage international relations elsewhere. 

Indeed, Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon has said that Canada “will not be bullied” over the news that Russia is creating a special military force to defend Arctic claims. Cannon added that Canada’s objectives were to protect the northern environment and develop the region’s economy by working with other countries, including Russia. However, he warned that “sovereignty is uppermost for us: we will not be swayed from that.”

Cannon’s comments are the just the latest in a string of strained relations between the two countries as Moscow continues to aggressively assert claims over the frozen north. In February, Stephen Harper, the Canadian Prime Minister, reprimanded Russia for resuming military training flights that approached Canadian airspace, and in response Russia told Canadian MPs that Ottawa was over-reacting and unfairly reviving the Cold War rhetoric. 

Co-operation?
However, despite Canada’s talk of protecting the region through co-operation, all outward signs point to the Arctic’s potential as a geopolitical hotspot, according to Rob Huebert, Associate Director of the University of Calgary’s Centre for Military and Strategic Studies. Heubert believes that it has become apparent that Russia has decided there will be no compromise in the process of sorting out international claims to the seabed riches in the Arctic. While the Russian embassy has played down the consequences of a military group dedicated to the Arctic, saying there is no direct link between Russia’s increasing military activity to the north and its arctic ambitions, Huebert doesn’t agree.

“The reality is that historically, whenever you mix undetermined boundaries, potentially very rich resources and you insert major powers such as Russia and the United States, I can’t think of a similar situation where you don’t have people playing hardball. It could get a lot more rough in the north,” says Heubert, adding that Canada will have to start delivering on its promises of more military for the north to back up its tough talk.

But while it has been flexing some military muscle in the region in retaliation to Russia, Canada is becoming increasingly worried about its claimed ownership of the Northwest Passage, the sea route linking the Atlantic to the Pacific, which passes through Canadian islands. The country’s claims have been rejected by a number of countries including the US, which is thought to regularly send military submarines to the area for testing – without asking permission. And despite territorial spats with Denmark, the two countries have recently found common ground, joining forces to prove that the Lomonosov Ridge is an extension of their continental shelves, placing the countries in direct competition with Russia. 

And Canada is not the only country being vocal in their opposition to Russia’s involvement in the polar region, with the European Union (EU) also stepping up. The EU, which includes Arctic states Denmark, Finland and Sweden, is keen to assert authority in the region after releasing a discussion paper outlining its views on sustainable exploitation of oil, gas and mineral wealth. The report identifies three major objectives in the area – namely, protecting and preserving the Arctic in unison with it population, promoting the sustainable use of resources and contributing to enhanced multilateral Arctic governance. And as the EU is desperate to free itself from continued dependency on Russian energy, it sees the untapped hydrocarbon reserves as having a part to play in enhancing its own energy security.

Such an approach could put into direct conflict with Canada, however, as the EU’s emphasis on the freedom of navigation and right of passage is seen as a challenge to Canadian jurisdiction regarding the Northwest Passage. Huebert has accused the European Union of taking the moral high ground. “The Europeans are using sleight of hand,” he says of the language used in the report. “Their code word is freedom of navigation. I see this as a European marker in the sand – or snow, as the case may be.”

With more countries and organisations getting involved in the battle, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said in January that the security alliance needed a military presence in the region to diffuse tensions. “I would be the last one to expect military conflict, but there will be a NATO military presence. It should be a military presence that is not overdone and there is a need for political and economic co-operation,” said de Hoop Scheffer. Moscow has since reacted angrily to suggestions by NATO that it could enter the Arctic conflict.

It remains to be seen what will happen to the Arctic, although there is no doubt that its future should involve co-operation rather than conflict. Of the five potential pretenders to the polar region, Russia is grabbing the most attention and appears to be ahead of the pack in terms of stepping up its efforts to secure the region. However, with such a large prize at stake it is unlikely that the other four countries – plus the EU – will back down without a fight. Indeed, each would like to secure as large amount of the region as possible. It seems that no-one will relinquish their claim without a fight. The war for the Arctic is on.

US claims to the Arctic
The US relies on its sovereign power and diplomacy when pursuing territorial claims in the Arctic. The United States is not a party to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea Treaty (LOST) and therefore is not bound by any procedures and determinations concluded through LOST instruments. Instead, the US is pursuing its claims “as an independent, sovereign nation,” relying in part on Harry S. Truman's Presidential Proclamation No. 2667, which declares that any hydrocarbon or other resources discovered beneath the US continental shelf are the property of the United States. The US can defend its rights and claims through bilateral negotiations and in the multilateral venues such as through the Arctic Ocean Conference in May 2008, which met in Ilulissat, Greenland.

Yet to protect its rights, the US needs to know how far its claims stretch into the Arctic Ocean. The US has been mapping the bottom of the Arctic Ocean and the Outer Continental Shelf since 2003. Despite ongoing US efforts to chart the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, mapping efforts have been inadequate. Mapping is important for disputing any conflicting claims by other Arctic nations. For example, the US and Canada have likely claimed some of the same parts of the continental shelf. Mapping data will also help to determine whether Russian claims conflict with US and Canadian claims.

This is an excerpt from The New Cold War: Reviving the US Presence in the Arctic, by Ariel Cohen, Lajos Szaszdi and Jim Dolbow.

100 years in the Arctic
1909 Explorers Robert Peary and Matthew Henson, plus four inuits, become the first men to reach the North Pole
1952 The first plane lands at the North Pole, piloted by Lieutenant Colonel William P Benedict
1958 The first nuclear powered submarine USS Nautilus becomes the first vessel to cross the North Pole underwater
1968 Discovery of oil on the Alaska North Slope
1969 The SS Manhattan, a specially designed oil tanker with icebreaker, successfully sailed through the Northwest Passage in the first attempt to bring commercial shipping to the region
1977 The Soviet nuclear icebreaker Arktika reached the North Pole, the first surface ship to do so
1986 A seasonal ‘hole’ in the ozone layer above the Arctic was discovered, showing similarities to a the depletion of the ozone over the sourthern polar reion
1998 Chinese researchers discover heavy industrial pollution in the snow around the North Pole
1999 It is reported that the Arctic average ice thickness has declined by 40 percent since the 1960s
2000 Canada and Russia begin to allow regular commercial air flights over the North Pole
2004 The Denmark Science Ministry claims the North Pole belongs to Denmark and sends an expedition to prove the seabed there is a natural continuation of Danish territory
2005 Norway’s Statoil ASA announces oil exploration drilling from the offshore rig Eirik Raude has been shut down after its third spill into Arctic waters in two months
2007 Russia plants a titanium flag under the North Pole, staking a claim to the Arctic region
2008 Russia and Norway meet for a two-day talk in the hope of making progress in a decades-old dispute over their maritime border in the Barents Sea
2009 Russia reveals plans to establish military bases along its northern coastline